Posted by
TNconservative on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 5:32:02 AM
Is McCain really "electable"?
Many have been trying to say that things are looking better for McCain in the national polls.
But what about state polls? I mean that is what the electoral map is made up of. States. And it is this electoral map that must be considered when looking at a candidate's chances of winning the general. In 2000 President Bush got 271 electoral votes winning 30 states. In 2004 President Bush got 286 electoral votes and won 31 states. Now 2004 was a very good election for us, and I thank God for it. And though we did win good, it is also clear that we could not afford to lose much on the electoral map. If President Bush actually had lost Ohio, he would have won 30 states yet still lost on the electoral map. So it is very good that he won Ohio. In 2000 it was even closer, and had President Bush lost even the smallest state like Alaska, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota or South Dakota, it could have caused a loss on the electoral map.
Even though the GOP has this obvious disadvantage on the electoral map President Bush was able to overcome it and win because President Bush had an energized conservative base. In 2004 President Bush's conservative base was strenghtened and so he won even a little bit better.
For a few years now, the state of California has gone to the democrats rather solidly. Thats a free 55 electoral votes. The state of New York is also a solid democrat state. Thats another free 31 electoral votes. Another solid democrat state that will almost certianly go to Obama is Illinois. Thats another free 21 electoral votes. Ok so we have just three states so far that are normally regarded today as solid democrat states. Those three add up to 107 free electoral votes for any democrat who wants to run for president. It only takes 270 electoral votes to win. Thats over 1/3 the way to getting elected president right there, and its free to any democrat who runs for president. Ok so lets look at some other solid democrat states because they don't stop there. Massachusetts is a solid democrat state and has 12 electoral votes. Rhode Island has 4 electoral votes. Connecticut has 7 electoral votes. New Jeresy has 15 electoral votes. Delaware has 3 electoral votes. Maryland has 10 electoral votes. And DC will be given 3 electoral votes. Ok so those other solid democrat states add up to 54 electoral votes. So that is a total of 161 electoral votes which are pretty certain to go to any democrat running for president. Oh, and Hawaii is pretty solid in democrat. It has 4 electoral votes. So the number is now 165 electoral votes.
Thats a pretty big advantage for the democrat candidate to have a pretty certain 165 electoral votes going into the election. But the GOP has beaten it before. So how do they beat it? By keeping all of the redstates red, which means being a solid conservative. A solid conservative would likely have an electoral map a lot like President Bush's 2004 electoral map. The swing states became GOP states and even states that lean democrat like Michigan and Wisconsin were only narrow loses. People respond well to this conservative thing.
So what are the state polls saying about McCain? Well so far not only his he losing the democrat leaning states that it was thought he might be able to win, but McCain is also losing swing states and even GOP leaning states. Recents polls show Obama winning in Michigan, Wisconsin, Oregon, Washington, Pennsylvania and Iowa. Most of those are democrat leaning states except for Iowa which is a swing state. Michigan's electoral votes are 17. Wisconsin's are 10. Oregon's are 7. Washington's are 11. Pennsylvania's are 21. That makes 66 electoral votes together. Added to the 165 from earlier you have 231 electoral votes. It is getting a lot closer to 270 now. As I said McCain not only is doing bad in those states but losing in Iowa polls, which is a valuable swing state. Iowa has 7 electoral votes. That would make the number now 238 electoral votes. McCain is also losing in the polls for Minnesota. Minnesota has 10 electoral votes. Now the number would be 248 electoral votes. And while McCain is barely winning in polls for florida, he has been losing in polls for Ohio. If McCain doesn't get Ohio, without winning any democrat leaning states, it doesn't look good for him. Ohio has 20 electoral votes. The number would then be up to 268 electoral votes. Another state that McCain has been losing in polls for is the GOP leaning state of Colorado. Colorado has 9 electoral votes. And as sad as it would be, that would be enough to be a win for the democrat.
But even what I have said so far isn't just it, it gets even worse for McCain. McCain according to polls may well lose Virginia. Virginia! The state of Virginia has not given it's electoral votes to a democrat since Barry Goldwater lost to Johnson in 1964. Another Arizona republican McCain may not lose as bad a Goldwater did, but the possibilities of McCain losing certainly seem high. And Virginia isn't the only GOP state McCain is losing. McCain has been losing in the polls for Indiana, and Montana.
So my question to McCain supporters is, how do you think McCain can win? It doesn't look very good for him at all, and all the talk about him being "electable" and appealing to "Independants" seems to be not working either. As far as him even losing GOP states goes, I think his liberal or moderate ways are to blame for that. I know that is exactly what makes me not interested in McCain. So how can he win?
I know follow conservatives that you are probably very scared of Obama winning as it looks like he might. I don't like it, probably about the same. But being that McCain's liberal or moderate ways have been harm rather than good and look like that may cost him the election, I hope everyone turns all their attention, all their support and all their enegry to the House of Represenatives. If they got some help and support they might actually be able to turn out some wins, which would give the conservative people a congress that could stop whichever liberal president we get. Please consider it.
Sorry if all the numbers were kind of boring but it is something that must be taken into consideration.
Thanks for reading and commenting.